Real Estate Investment in Egypt: How to Calculate Your Return (2026)

Why the Math Matters

Most buyers decide with their eyes — the view, the pool, the finishing. Then the numbers decide for them. This guide walks through how to calculate what a property actually returns, and how it compares with the alternatives, so you can decide with both.

The Three Components of a Real Estate Return

1. Rental Yield

The simplest number: annual rent ÷ price.

Yield = Annual Rent / Unit Price × 100

If a unit costs EGP 10M and rents for EGP 700K/year, the gross yield is 7%. In Egypt, residential yields commonly range 6-8%; commercial units can go higher. Deduct maintenance (roughly 1-2% of the price per year) and any management fees to get the net yield.

2. Capital Appreciation

The second component: the unit's price rising each year. This is an assumption, not a promise — real estate in Egypt has compounded at double-digit nominal rates in recent years, but past performance is not a guarantee. Run at least three scenarios:

• Conservative: +5% a year
• Base case: +10% a year
• Optimistic: +15% a year

The honest answer to "what is the ROI?" is a range, not a single number.

3. Currency Protection

An apartment is an EGP asset that historically tracks inflation better than cash. If the EGP weakens against the USD — it traded near EGP 50.9 per USD in August 2026 — a property priced in EGP tends to reprice upward in nominal terms. This is the "sleep well at night" component that spreadsheets miss.

The Total Return — A Worked Example

Take a EGP 10M apartment, delivered, rented out:

Over five years: roughly EGP 9.6M of total return on a EGP 10M asset — before buying costs and taxes. Notice how appreciation dominates: in a growing market, the price rise matters more than the rent.

The Alternative Opportunities

A property competes with other ways to hold EGP 10M:

• Government T-bills: double-digit EGP yields in recent years — the

strongest competitor. The catch: liquidity is easy, but the EGP return can be eaten by inflation and currency moves.

• Gold: 21K gold traded around EGP 6,600/gram in August 2026. Gold

protects against EGP weakness but pays no rent and carries holding risk.

• USD cash: around EGP 50.88/USD — a hedge, but no income and zero

yield while held.

• The stock market: potential upside, but volatility and skill required.

The framework: total return = income + appreciation + currency protection. Real estate usually wins on the combination — rarely on any single component.

The Opportunity Cost Calculation

When you buy off-plan, your money is locked for 2-4 years before delivery. Compare that period against what the same money earns in T-bills:

Opportunity cost = Down payment × T-bill rate × Years before delivery

A EGP 1.5M down payment at 20% for 3 years = about EGP 900K of foregone interest. That is part of the real cost of off-plan buying — price it in.

The Honest Risks

• Delivery delays: the schedule slips; your locked money stays locked.
• Illiquidity: a unit takes months to sell — T-bills settle in days.
• Rental gaps: empty months between tenants cut the yield.
• Selling costs: commissions and registration can eat 2-5% at exit.

FAQ

• What is a good rental yield in Egypt? 6-8% residential is solid;

above 8% is strong.

• Is appreciation guaranteed? No — treat it as a scenario, not a promise.
• Should I compare against T-bills? Yes — every off-plan purchase should

be measured against the risk-free EGP yield first.

• What about buying in USD terms? If you think in USD, model the exit

exchange rate too — the asset's EGP price and the currency move together.

Final Thoughts

The numbers are the easy part. The discipline is: model three scenarios, add the opportunity cost, subtract the risks — and only then visit the compound.